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Tottenham ‘least likely’ English side to reach Champions League last 16

Tottenham are the English team that are least likely to reach the Champions League knockout phase, according to a recent projection, while Liverpool have the best chance of progressing.

Mauricio Pochettino’s men have been drawn in a group with Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid and Apoel FC and will be playing their matches at Wembley – where they lost to Monaco and Bayer Leverkusen to seal their elimination last campaign.

And they will be up against it again this season it seems, with Gracenote Sports giving them a 44 per cent chance of going through.

The other four English teams look to be set fair, however, with Manchester United and rivals City given a 73 per cent likelihood of progressing. Chelsea have a 66 per cent chance, while Liverpool – in a group with Spartak Moscow, Maribor and Sevilla – are given an 81 per cent liklihood.

The statistics were calculated using a million simulations and Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports, says Jurgen Klopp’s side have the best chance of progressing because of their draw.

He said: “Liverpool’s chance of progress to the knockout phase increased from 51% to 81% after being drawn in Group E with Sevilla, Spartak Moscow and Maribor. Prior to the draw, Liverpool were not one of the most likely 16 teams to progress.”

Chelsea must beware of AS Roma who have a 48 per cent chance of progress from group C instead of the Blues or Atlético Madrid, while Shakhtar Donetsk have a 45 per cent chance of going through from Group F ahead of City or Napoli.

After last season’s Champions League draw, Gracenote Sports correctly predicted 15 of the 16 clubs to progress to the Champions League knockout phase.

The 16 clubs most likely to make it through to last 16

Club Country Chance of reaching last 16
Real Madrid Spain 97%
FC Barcelona Spain 97%
Bayern Munich Germany 97%
Paris Saint-Germain France 93%
Juventus Italy 88%
Atlético Madrid Spain 85%
Sevilla FC Spain 84%
AS Monaco France 83%
Liverpool England 81%
Napoli Italy 74%
Manchester United England 73%
Manchester City England 73%
Benfica Portugal 66%
Chelsea England 66%
Borussia Dortmund Germany 57%
FC Porto Portugal 52%

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